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Markets & Economy » Inflation Worries Are Picking Up
March 19, 2018 | Market Commentary
The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day policy meeting begins tomorrow, March 20, and investors are assigning a high probability that policymakers will hike interest rates by 25 basis points. With respect to the inflation outlook, the magnitude and frequency of changes to the Fed funds rate …
Markets & Economy » What Happened and What’s Next for Fixed Income
February 13, 2018 | Market Commentary
Looking Back: An Era of “Goldilocks” The past year brought cheer across the financial markets. The world saw synchronized global growth and soft inflation readings, and with the exception of recent market gyrations, volatility persisted near historically low levels. Nothing was “too hot or too …
Markets & Economy » Volatility Awakens
February 06, 2018 | Market Commentary
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gave up more than 1,100 points yesterday in its largest one-day point decline on record. The S&P 500 dropped 4.1% for the day, and the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index more than doubled. The downward move in equities began early last week, and the selloff …
Markets & Economy » Tax Reform Implications
December 22, 2017 | Market Commentary
Congressional Republicans passed a sweeping overhaul of the U.S. tax code last week in what is the most significant change to tax policy in 31 years. The bill, titled The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, was signed into law by President Trump this morning. One of the central goals of The Tax Cuts and …
Markets & Economy » Don’t Rule Out That Raise
November 09, 2017 | Market Commentary
As Federal Reserve policymakers move further along on plans for monetary policy normalization, they will look to key inflation indicators in deciding the appropriate pace of tightening. One of those key indicators, wage growth, has been disappointingly modest over the course of the current …
Library » November 2017 Perspective
November 06, 2017 | Market Commentary
The U.S. Economy In recent months, we have discussed the emergence of a synchronized global expansion unfolding across most economic regions. Though the expansion is not expected to be a sharp move, it has the potential to impact the U.S. economy and has thus far contributed to a modest …
Vantage » Research Note: A Closer Look at Wage Growth
October 31, 2017 | Market Commentary
October marks the eight-year anniversary of the first and only month since the early 1980s that headline unemployment reached 10% in the United States. A lot has changed in the intervening eight years. The unemployment rate for September 2017 sits at just 4.2%, and labor market slack has …
Library » May 2017 Perspective
May 05, 2017 | Market Commentary
Domestic and international political uncertainties led to a significant risk-off move during April, driving a further reversal of the reflation trade and a mild flight to safe haven assets.
Markets & Economy » The U.S. Consumer: A Potential Bright Spot
October 12, 2016 | Market Commentary
In the years following the global financial crisis, the American consumer was faced with a particularly challenging economic environment. The unemployment rate climbed from just under 4.5% in 2007 to 10% only two years later as millions of workers suddenly found themselves out of a job. The …
Vantage » Accounting for the U.S. Consumer’s Gas Savings Windfall
July 23, 2015 | Market Commentary
From June 2014 to April 2015, consumers saved $131.6 billion on consumption of energy goods and services. This begs the question: where have all the savings from lower energy prices gone? There are several possible scenarios, including: Rising prices in other parts of the consumer’s basket of …
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