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Markets & Economy » Inflation Worries Are Picking Up

March 19, 2018 | Market Commentary

The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day policy meeting begins tomorrow, March 20, and investors are assigning a high probability that policymakers will hike interest rates by 25 basis points. With respect to the inflation outlook, the magnitude and frequency of changes to the Fed funds rate …

Markets & Economy » What Happened and What’s Next for Fixed Income

February 13, 2018 | Market Commentary

Looking Back: An Era of “Goldilocks” The past year brought cheer across the financial markets. The world saw synchronized global growth and soft inflation readings, and with the exception of recent market gyrations, volatility persisted near historically low levels. Nothing was “too hot or too …

Markets & Economy » Volatility Awakens

February 06, 2018 | Market Commentary

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gave up more than 1,100 points yesterday in its largest one-day point decline on record. The S&P 500 dropped 4.1% for the day, and the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index more than doubled. The downward move in equities began early last week, and the selloff …

Markets & Economy » Tax Reform Implications

December 22, 2017 | Market Commentary

Congressional Republicans passed a sweeping overhaul of the U.S. tax code last week in what is the most significant change to tax policy in 31 years. The bill, titled The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, was signed into law by President Trump this morning. One of the central goals of The Tax Cuts and …

Markets & Economy » Don’t Rule Out That Raise

November 09, 2017 | Market Commentary

As Federal Reserve policymakers move further along on plans for monetary policy normalization, they will look to key inflation indicators in deciding the appropriate pace of tightening. One of those key indicators, wage growth, has been disappointingly modest over the course of the current …

Library » November 2017 Perspective

November 06, 2017 | Market Commentary

The U.S. Economy In recent months, we have discussed the emergence of a synchronized global expansion unfolding across most economic regions. Though the expansion is not expected to be a sharp move, it has the potential to impact the U.S. economy and has thus far contributed to a modest …

Vantage » Research Note: A Closer Look at Wage Growth

October 31, 2017 | Market Commentary

October marks the eight-year anniversary of the first and only month since the early 1980s that headline unemployment reached 10% in the United States. A lot has changed in the intervening eight years. The unemployment rate for September 2017 sits at just 4.2%, and labor market slack has …

Library » May 2017 Perspective

May 05, 2017 | Market Commentary

Domestic and international political uncertainties led to a significant risk-off move during April, driving a further reversal of the reflation trade and a mild flight to safe haven assets.

Markets & Economy » The U.S. Consumer: A Potential Bright Spot

October 12, 2016 | Market Commentary

In the years following the global financial crisis, the American consumer was faced with a particularly challenging economic environment. The unemployment rate climbed from just under 4.5% in 2007 to 10% only two years later as millions of workers suddenly found themselves out of a job. The …


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