Markets & Economy

Markets rode a roller coaster during President Trump’s first 100 days in office. Upon inauguration, confidence hovered near its post-recession peak and continued to grow upbeat. This helped support markets, which hit all-time highs shortly following the president’s well-received Congressional Address. However, political challenges within his own party, as well as geopolitical confrontations from old adversaries, tempered market enthusiasm in recent weeks and drove a flight to safety. While investors anxiously await news regarding further details of a pro-growth agenda, we highlight some of the noteworthy events that have transpired since President Trump assumed office.

	Inauguration President Donald Trump is sworn in as the 45th President of the United States. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 stand at 19,827 and 2,271, respectively, while the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is 2.48%.
	Senate Confirms Tillerson Former Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson is confirmed as the new Secretary of State. Though an unconventional selection, the businessman pick is an early indication that President Trump intends to follow through on his promise to run Washington as a business.
	Senate Confirms Mnuchin Pleasing markets, the Senate confirms former Goldman Sachs banker Steven Mnuchin as Secretary of the Treasury. Although campaign comments from President Trump suggested that he might be anti-Wall Street, the choice of several former bankers to key posts provides comfort to investors as equities log a multi-week climb.
	S&P 500 All-Time High US equities reach fresh all-time highs following President Trump’s first Congressional address. The S&P 500 closed at 2,396, up 5.5% since inauguration. Markets appreciate his focus on several pro-growth campaign promises including tax reform, infrastructure investment, and deregulation.
	House GOP Releases AHCA Plan In what was promised to be the first order of business for the Trump administration, House Republicans release the American Health Care Act (AHCA), a detailed plan for replacing the Affordable Care Act (ACA), also known as Obamacare. The legislation is an early test for the seemingly unified Republican leadership in Washington.
	Treasury Yields Break 2.6%, CBO Releases AHCA Findings On the same day that the 10-year Treasury yield rises above 2.6%, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office finds that 24 million Americans could become uninsured by the proposed AHCA, jarring moderate Congressional Republicans. The plan had previously been under pressure from far right Tea Party lawmakers to do more to roll back the ACA.
	House GOP Pulls AHCA Bill Facing opposition from both ends of the party, House Speaker Paul Ryan abandons the scheduled vote on the proposed AHCA bill. Moderate Republicans feared constituent blowback from potentially increasing the number of uninsured while Tea Party conservatives felt that the cost cutting did not go far enough.
	Dow Posts 8-Day Slide The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell for the eighth-straight session, down to 20551, as the failure of AHCA has investors concerned for other pro-growth White House proposals including taxes, infrastructure, and regulatory reform.
	North Korea Successfully Launches Ballistic Missile Overshadowing the first meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump, North Korea successfully fires a nuclear-capable intermediate-range missile, unnerving close American allies in the Pacific and drawing sharp international condemnation.
	US Missile Strike on Syrian Airbase The U.S. fired 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles at a Syrian air base as a direct response to an Assad regime chemical gas attack, the worst of the Syrian Civil War. U.S. equities sit modestly below peak levels.
	Treasury Yields Break 2.2% Rising geopolitical tensions drive a flight to safe haven assets as equities move lower and the yield on the 10-Year Treasury reaches its lowest level since mid-November.
	President Trump’s Tax Proposal Announced White House chief economic advisor Gary Cohn and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin outline several key details of President Trump’s tax reform plan. As expected, corporate and income taxes would be slashed while numerous deductions and exemptions would be eliminated. Markets react favorably in the days leading up to the announcement as details begin to surface.
	Day 100: Where Markets Stand During the first 100 days, U.S. equities moved solidly higher, with the DJIA and S&P 500 closing at 20,941 and 2,384, up 5.6% and 5.0% for the period, respectively. Bond markets also rallied as Treasury yields drifted lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield down 19 basis points to 2.29%.