Research Note - December 2016

December 22, 2016 | Market Commentary

Does the election of Donald Trump plus a Republican majority in the House and Senate equal a change in our economic overview? We look beyond the splashy headlines to contemplate this question in our new Research Note.

Country in Focus: Canada

November 03, 2016 | International Markets

With the U.S. presidential election upon us, one probably does not need to search too hard for pledges by friends or family to move to Canada depending on the outcome. Regardless of the credibility of these threats, our latest Country In Focus post takes deep look at the investment environment north of the border.

Research Note - October 2016

October 04, 2016 | Market Commentary

Slow growth and volatility have been the status quo throughout most of the current expansion. Our indicators suggest these features are likely to remain in place for now, but it is still important to consider what could threaten this outlook.

Research Note - August 2016

August 10, 2016 | Market Commentary

A recurring topic in our Research Notes in 2016 has been the importance of being prepared for market volatility against a backdrop of slow economic growth and relatively full valuations.

Checking in on the Consumer

June 30, 2016 | Active Management

The U.S. consumer is widely known to be the major contributor to domestic economic activity. In fact, the American consumer’s share of the U.S. economy (over 68%) ranks among the highest in the world.

The U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance: Weathering the Storm

November 23, 2015 | Domestic Markets

We first explored the U.S. manufacturing renaissance in 2012, when our perspective was that a resurgence of domestic manufacturing activity would be a silver lining—not a silver bullet—for U.S. economic growth. This assessment has proved to be correct over the past three years, and we believe that the trend is likely to continue going forward.

Accounting for the U.S. Consumer’s Gas Savings Windfall

July 23, 2015 | Market Commentary

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) have increased throughout the recovery as incomes have grown and confidence has improved. This needs to be taken into account when analyzing growth in PCE linked to the fall in energy prices in order to avoid confusing growth that would have occurred regardless of the change in energy prices.

Evaluating Valuations: An Environment of Elevated Risk for U.S. Equities

May 20, 2015 | Domestic Markets

The November 2014 article titled Three Dimensions of Risk and Returns for U.S. Equities discussed our framework for minimizing the risk of sustained capital loss, a key tenet of the investment process at Manning & Napier. The indicators that are used to analyze this risk from a top-down perspective are grouped into three families: economic, valuation, and liquidity/sentiment.

Country in Focus: United States

December 31, 2014 | Domestic Markets

The economic and market outlook for the United States is a major ongoing focus of Vantage. However, this month we thought it would be worthwhile to evaluate the environmental profile of the US using the Country in Focus framework that we apply to other nations around the world.

Revisiting the Case for Slow Growth in the United States

November 18, 2014 | Domestic Markets

The U.S. Dollar has rallied sharply since July, particularly relative to the Euro and Yen, igniting a debate as to whether the pace of U.S. economic growth will slow from here. Today, uncertainty seems to be returning, both in the U.S. and globally...

Three Dimensions of Risk and Returns for U.S. Equities

November 18, 2014 | Domestic Markets

October marked the sixth anniversary of the investment bank, Lehman Brothers, filing for bankruptcy. This action consequentially sent the world’s capital markets into unprecedented turmoil. The ultimate bottom in the United States stock market...